+SPORTS CR3W Numero Uno: Shabazz Napier, X-factor Daniels length
USA TODAY Sports college writer/producer Scott Gleeson breaks down Kentucky's chances for defeating UConn.
Scott Gleeson,
+USA TODAY Sports provides your March Madness therapy.
ARLINGTON, Texas — The hype has returned, if only for mere days.
What started with 40-0 expectations — that quickly flat lined — has returned in the form of greatest coaching job of John Calipari's career and as good as the Fab Five and better than 2012's title team.
Um, slow down. It's Monday morning, not Monday night at 11 something.
BRACKET HUB: Everything March Madness
CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW: UConn's defense will test Kentucky
+Kentucky Wildcats are a 2.5-point favorite to win the national championship game — the narrowest point spread since 2008.
Odds are one thing, but go inside any sports bar in Dallas and ask fans which team they've got. Kentucky rolls off the tongue just as smoothly as +Florida Gators and +Michigan State did. You see where I'm going with this?
Calipari's freshmen-laden group should win for a variety of reasons. More talent. Momentum. Veteran coach. Clutch factor. You name it. But would it be that big of a surprise if UConn won? Here's a team that went through as many hills and valleys as the Wildcats. On paper, the Huskies weren't better than Michigan State or Florida, both of whom were favored to win the national title.
BREAKDOWN: Individual matchups in title game
MORE: Kentucky could make history
FAN'S TATTOO: Could become reality
So in order to have a backup plan just in case Kentucky doesn't cut down the nets, here's a road map to how Shabazz Napier and Co. could pull off the upset. Again.
1. UConn plays better as the underdog. Kentucky is loaded with McDonald's All-Americans, and UConn has none. Perfect. The Huskies have a higher seed than their opponent but aren't favored to win. Perfect. Perhaps the key ingredient in this team's success has been the comfort factor that comes from playing with nothing to lose.
2. Experience. Shabazz Napier has been on a national championship team and, compared with Kentucky's youngsters, UConn has a veteran presence. In a title game, when nerves will indeed come out, Connecticut has the edge.
3. Great backcourt > Great frontcourt. As Nicole Auerbach writes, great guards are vital to NCAA tournament success, and the Huskies are a textbook example of that. Napier, a senior, and junior Ryan Boatright make up arguably the nation's best backcourt. Kentucky's interior presence will pose matchup problems and cause Kevin Ollie headaches, but great guard play can offset even a Julius Randle-led frontcourt. UConn has two heady point guards who penetrate well and are ballhawks defensively. The Huskies will have the edge here.
10. UConn is lights out from the charity stripe. If the game comes down to free throws, UConn's set. The Huskies have shot 86% from the free-throw line in the tournament — using those points to keep pace against better offensive teams. Kentucky hasn't been as accurate — 70.6%.
11. UConn beat Florida and Michigan State. That's all.
12. UConn's Final Four dominance. UConn is 7-1 in Final Four games, the best percentage of any team with more than three wins. The Huskies are 3-0 in title games.
13. UConn's second-half surges. The Huskies have a plus-36 point differential in the second half and overtime in tournament games.
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| (Photo: USA TODAY Sports) |
What started with 40-0 expectations — that quickly flat lined — has returned in the form of greatest coaching job of John Calipari's career and as good as the Fab Five and better than 2012's title team.
Um, slow down. It's Monday morning, not Monday night at 11 something.
BRACKET HUB: Everything March Madness
CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW: UConn's defense will test Kentucky
Odds are one thing, but go inside any sports bar in Dallas and ask fans which team they've got. Kentucky rolls off the tongue just as smoothly as +Florida Gators and +Michigan State did. You see where I'm going with this?
Calipari's freshmen-laden group should win for a variety of reasons. More talent. Momentum. Veteran coach. Clutch factor. You name it. But would it be that big of a surprise if UConn won? Here's a team that went through as many hills and valleys as the Wildcats. On paper, the Huskies weren't better than Michigan State or Florida, both of whom were favored to win the national title.
BREAKDOWN: Individual matchups in title game
MORE: Kentucky could make history
FAN'S TATTOO: Could become reality
So in order to have a backup plan just in case Kentucky doesn't cut down the nets, here's a road map to how Shabazz Napier and Co. could pull off the upset. Again.
1. UConn plays better as the underdog. Kentucky is loaded with McDonald's All-Americans, and UConn has none. Perfect. The Huskies have a higher seed than their opponent but aren't favored to win. Perfect. Perhaps the key ingredient in this team's success has been the comfort factor that comes from playing with nothing to lose.
2. Experience. Shabazz Napier has been on a national championship team and, compared with Kentucky's youngsters, UConn has a veteran presence. In a title game, when nerves will indeed come out, Connecticut has the edge.
3. Great backcourt > Great frontcourt. As Nicole Auerbach writes, great guards are vital to NCAA tournament success, and the Huskies are a textbook example of that. Napier, a senior, and junior Ryan Boatright make up arguably the nation's best backcourt. Kentucky's interior presence will pose matchup problems and cause Kevin Ollie headaches, but great guard play can offset even a Julius Randle-led frontcourt. UConn has two heady point guards who penetrate well and are ballhawks defensively. The Huskies will have the edge here.
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| Kentucky Wildcats center Dakari Johnson (44) chases a loose ball in their Final Four game against the Wisconsin Badgers. (Photo: Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports) |
4. Napier & Ryan Boatright will fluster the Harrison twins. Napier and Boatright can take over games offensively and defensively. Against Florida, they limited Scottie Wilbekin to four points and also held Michael Frazier to an off shooting night. While Aaron Harrison has become a hero for his back-to-back game-winning shots, the twins have not faced on-the-ball defenders as strong as Napier and Boatright. Clearly, all eyes will be on the backcourt matchup.
5. Points off turnovers. +UConn has outscored its opponents by 41 points in the +NCAA Men's Basketball March Madness — with a plus-32 advantage in points off turnovers, 84-52. On Saturday, the Huskies held Florida to three assists while forcing 11 turnovers. Kentucky has a minus-9 turnover differential in its tournament games.
6. Who will guard/contain Napier? Napier had an off game with 12 points against Florida and still found ways to excel. Before that game, he was the best player in the tournament. The key question is who tries to slow him down? It'll take a collaborative effort, but neither the Harrisons nor James Young are quick enough to contain the All-American.
7. UConn will make Kentucky shoot outside. This is perhaps the most crucial factor. Kentucky excels when it can get to the paint, so Ollie's gameplan will be to keep the Wildcats out of the lane and force them to make outside shots. It's easier said than done, but the more perimeter shooting for Kentucky, the better for the Huskies.
8. Kentucky's role players are due for an off night. With Willie Cauley-Stein out for a third consecutive game, role players Dakari Johnson, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee again will have to come up big. Lee did that against Michigan, and Poythress and Johnson were key factors against Wisconsin. If they don't make their needed contributions, Kentucky could be in trouble.
5. Points off turnovers. +UConn has outscored its opponents by 41 points in the +NCAA Men's Basketball March Madness — with a plus-32 advantage in points off turnovers, 84-52. On Saturday, the Huskies held Florida to three assists while forcing 11 turnovers. Kentucky has a minus-9 turnover differential in its tournament games.
6. Who will guard/contain Napier? Napier had an off game with 12 points against Florida and still found ways to excel. Before that game, he was the best player in the tournament. The key question is who tries to slow him down? It'll take a collaborative effort, but neither the Harrisons nor James Young are quick enough to contain the All-American.
7. UConn will make Kentucky shoot outside. This is perhaps the most crucial factor. Kentucky excels when it can get to the paint, so Ollie's gameplan will be to keep the Wildcats out of the lane and force them to make outside shots. It's easier said than done, but the more perimeter shooting for Kentucky, the better for the Huskies.
8. Kentucky's role players are due for an off night. With Willie Cauley-Stein out for a third consecutive game, role players Dakari Johnson, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee again will have to come up big. Lee did that against Michigan, and Poythress and Johnson were key factors against Wisconsin. If they don't make their needed contributions, Kentucky could be in trouble.
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| Kentucky forward Julius Randle is a likely top 5 NBA draft lottery pick. (Photo: Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports) |
9. UConn knows it starts with Julius Randle."He's being played like Shaq was played in college," coach John Calipari said before the Final Four. Randle has been double teamed and triple teamed. His aggression creates openings for teammates. UConn played tightly yet smart against Michigan State's Adreian Payne. They'll need to play Randle similarly.
10. UConn is lights out from the charity stripe. If the game comes down to free throws, UConn's set. The Huskies have shot 86% from the free-throw line in the tournament — using those points to keep pace against better offensive teams. Kentucky hasn't been as accurate — 70.6%.
11. UConn beat Florida and Michigan State. That's all.
12. UConn's Final Four dominance. UConn is 7-1 in Final Four games, the best percentage of any team with more than three wins. The Huskies are 3-0 in title games.
13. UConn's second-half surges. The Huskies have a plus-36 point differential in the second half and overtime in tournament games.
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