NFL Conference Championship Round Preview

This Sunday pits the top two seeds from the NFC and AFC against one another. It is an ideal circumstance for the NFL as it really leaves the four most dominant and consistent clubs throughout the season. An added bonus, the games are rematches of regular season matchups that were two of the more memorable games of the season.

The New Orleans Saints carry the number one seed and bragging rights a they host the Los Angeles Rams at 3 p.m. EST. In their first meeting of the season in New Orleans, the Saints won 45-35 against the Rams. The Saints won with defense to advance to this week and the Rams won with their running game and run defense to get here. Both teams have prolific offenses that scored a lot of points this season. There are so many variables that this mathchup can come down to. One major difference is that the Rams have an All-Pro cornerback that is playing this time around in Aqib Talib. The Rams are minus some of their offensive lineman and budding star, slot receiver Cooper Kupp.

On the other side, the Saints are without one of their biggest defensive lineman contributors Sheldon Rankins who went down in the diviisional round last week. The Saints have speedy WR Ted Ginn Jr. back into the fold after missing much of the season. He may not dominate but he does have to be accounted for because of the one of two potential deep shots that Brees will hit opponent with.

The Rams ran all over the Cowboys defense last week, a reinactment of when the Colts shutout the Cowboys in the regular season and ran the ball to dominate the game. It should be noted that the Rams are different animal in Los Angeles. They struggled on the road this year at times. Marcus Peters was beat several times last week and is known for playing out of position trying to make a big play. Emotions will hurt players in games like this and I believe the cool-headed Drew Brees will take full advantage if Peters tries to jump a route or read his eyes. 

The Mercedez-Benz Superdome will be rocking for the home team. This game comes down to which team has more success in the run game. That can be interpreted two ways and it means both of them in reality. Which team has more success stopping the run and running the ball? Special teams will be fun to watch in this game and potential trick plays. Also fourth down conversions will be the most important factor in the outcome, is my prediction. 

This game pivots two teams that are very hungry after disappointing losses in the divisional round in last years playoffs. Ultimately being at home for the Saints will give them just enough to win this game. Although I would not be surprised if the Rams are able to control the line of scrimmage and pull this game out. We know what we will see from Aaron Donald, but if Ndomukon Suh can reek havoc in the run game like he did against the Cowboys. If this were in Los Angeles, this game would go to the Rams.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the New England Patriots in the AFC championship game at 6:40 p.m. EST. The two clubs earlier matchup was your prototypical PAc-12 late night college shootout with the Patriots prevailing 43-40 in what basically came down to whomever had the last possession was going to win. The Patriots wisely used the last precious moments on the clock in their final drive to not allow the Chiefs a realistic chance to score afterwards.

The biggest caveat in this game is that it is in Kansas City and in much colder temperatures that is expeted to be around 20 degrees. The Patriots have their worst road record since 2009. Many pundits have dismissed the Patriots this year which is a surprise considering they have five championships under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to go with eight Super Bowl appearances. The times they have failed to advance though have been on the road in the playoffs.

Andy Reid, the Chiefs head coach is notorious for being highly successful in the regular season but coming up short in the playoffs. He hosted four straight conference title games while the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles and he did not win until the fourth one. Eventually losing to Belichick and Brady in the Super Bowl. The Eagles had a chance to win at the end but came up short as the Patriots brought home their third Lombardi in four years.

The Chiefs have the season's likely MVP in Patrick Mahomes who threw for 50 touchdowns this season to lead the NFL. In what has not been a flashy passing season for Brady and Patriots, they have shifted back to a run-heavy time of possession offense while the majority of the NFL offenses have shifted to the new spread RPO (run-pass option) college prototype schemes. It is the blueprint that Mahomes played to perfection in college and in his first year as the Chiefs starting QB.

The Chiefs weakness has been their defense all season as they have relied on having the lead and allowing their edge rushers to just worry about rushing the opposing QB to create turnovers and sacks. The Chiefs have not been forced to slow down the run in a tight game really all season.

The more things change and alter in NFL offenses with the spread, three wideout sets and nickel defenses all the field about 70 percent of the time, the more things stay the same. Defense, running the ball, and controlling the line of scrimmage win the games that matter late in the season. 

It is almost as if Bill Belichick knew this after their win against the Chiefs as he has relied heavily on controlling games with the run and shortening the games. The Patriots defense is not loaded with speed or really playmakers aside from Trey Flowers and Stephon Gilmore. Belichick is masterful at putting his players attributes in the right scheme and in a position to do what is expected of them. Mahomes can make plays that amaze but he also can force the ball into bad spots if the game is tight. Tom Brady looked right last week in a drubbing of the Los Angeles Chargers and to those close to the team said that he was quietly dealing with a bad knee and last week he ran across the field for the first time in more than a month in warm ups.

Julian Edelman looked like the Edelman that was so dominant two years ago in the Super Bowl comeback win for the Patriots over the Falcons. Health is a big factor and home field advantage is also one. This game is tough to call but I will give the nod to experience and how fresh an older club in the Patriots looked after the bye week. They will run the ball on the Chiefs and control just enough of this game.